Thursday, September 11, 2008

This is disturbing...just posted on local news website

Hurricane Ike could make a direct hit on Galveston
If the latest forecast track is accurate*, Hurricane Ike could make a direct hit on our local coastline. The update late Wednesday brought the center part of the forecast cone even closer to Galveston Bay while moving away from Matagorda Bay.
If the storm makes landfall near Freeport or San Luis Pass, then Galveston Island and the Bay could be on the dirty side of the storm. This could push a 15-22' storm surge onto the Island. Winds could blow over 100-120 mph....or more.
The track early Wednesday put the dirty side into Matagorda Bay. But as of late Wednesday, it looked like Matagorda Bay would be on the west side of the storm. A north wind blowing across Matagorda Bay could still cause some flooding by pushing water out toward the Gulf, but it wouldn't be as bad as having a 120 mph south wind blowing water into the Bay.
*The forecast will likely change several times over the next 72 hours. This is not like Gustav, or even Katrina or Rita. Ike is tracking around the edge of higher pressure north of the storm and it's being pulled northward by a trough of low pressure coming in from the west. This is a particularly difficult hurricane to forecast because it won't be moving in a straight line by the time it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico. And a minor change in the path, can have a major effect on our forecast

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